Planning is a decision-making
process whereby interdependent decisions are integrated into a system of
decisions. What makes effective planning particularly challenging is that it entails an anticipatory process, as decisions are
made on future actions and how to perform them. However, in today’s dynamic
environment, characterized by frequent unexpected events and volatile
information, anticipation becomes very difficult, and the key question faced by
the project team is how far in advance of implementation they should make their
decisions. Making them early provides more time to develop and coordinate these
decisions with other interrelated decisions, and in general, to be better
prepared for implementation. However, if decisions are made too early, there is
a high probability that the changes that will take place between the time of
decision making and the time of implementation will require that the decisions
be modified.
To cope with these conflicting
considerations, project managers employ a “rolling wave” approach to planning.
Thus, they develop plans in waves as the project unfolds and information
becomes more reliable. They help develop Action Plans, which are detailed
short-term plans with a one-to-two-week time horizon, usually the
responsibility of low-level supervisors. Medium-term plans (e.g., 90-day
Look-Ahead Plans) are less detailed in comparison, typically with a time
horizon of two to six months. Being at the hub of internal and external project
information, the project manager is in the best position to lead the periodic
updating of the medium-term plans. Finally, long-term plans (Master Plans),
cover the duration of the entire project and are quite general, presenting only
aggregate activities. Through the rolling wave approach, project managers can
ensure short-term stability and long-term flexibility (see Figure 1).
Fig. 1: Influence of planning horizon on degree of detail
This style of planning does not imply that decisions should
be arbitrarily “put off until later.” Rather, it is an act of deliberately
splitting off those planning aspects that can be acted upon more opportunely in
the future. By applying this approach, two extreme situations are avoided. The
first is the preparation of overly detailed plans too soon, which may lead to
rapid obsolescence because some decisions are based on information provided by
intelligent guesses rather than on reliable data. This is particularly the case
when the project suffers from a high degree of uncertainty. The other extreme
situation is delaying the planning until all the information is complete and
stable. In both cases, project effectiveness will suffer.
The benefits of this planning
approach go beyond offering stable plans. When
adopting this planning method, the preparation of plan updates shifts from the
full time professional scheduler, who remains responsible primarily for the
Master Plan, to the project manager and his/her team who now may assume
responsibility for the short-term Action Plans, as well as for the mid-term
plans. This approach may enhance the involvement of the entire team in the project planning process, creating a sense of
ownership and promoting greater responsiveness to change.
Ray Morgan, the project manager of Pathfinder, a
solar-powered airplane, used the short- and mid-term schedule as a means not
only for communicating the overall picture of what needed to be done, when, and
why; but also for actively engaging the entire team in updating and using their
plans. He, therefore, put a graphic depiction of the schedule on the side of a
large container right in the hangar, next to the flight test crew and the
airplane. The team was encouraged not simply to adhere to the original plan but
to add and delete tasks interactively. These changes were incorporated into a
computer model and were reprinted once or twice a week during flight tests. The
team often referred back to the chart to help redefine the importance of a
current task and to see how it fit into “the big picture.” Thus, the plans
resulting from the on-going learning was owned by the team.
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